Tomato Harvest 2026: Europe Recovers, Iran Exits, and the Race to Fill the Gap
A market analysis covering Europe, Asia and the Southern Hemisphere
The Global Picture
The 2026 processing tomato season is shaping up as a correction year.
Three forces are reshaping the global landscape.
Europe: A Two-Speed Market
Italy — Premium Strategy Pays Off
Italy remains the European leader.
Spain — The Big Unknown
Spain is forecast at approximately 2.6 million tonnes.
Portugal, France, Bulgaria — Under Pressure
Portugal maintains its forecast of 1.3 million tonnes.
Asia and the Middle East
China — Geopolitics Reshapes Trade
After record output of more than 10 million tonnes in 2024.
Egypt — The New Delta
Egypt holds its forecast at 800,000 tonnes.
Iran — Indefinite Export Ban
On 3 March 2026, Iran imposed an indefinite ban.
Who Takes Iran's Market Share?
Iran's exports concentrate in a narrow geographic sphere.
The vacuum left by Iran's withdrawal is being contested.
| Market | Volume | Replacement |
|---|---|---|
| Iraq | ~80 K t | China, Türkiye, UAE |
| Afghanistan | ~34 K t | China, Pakistan |
| UAE | ~6 K t | China, Egypt |
| Russia | ~4.5 K t | China, Türkiye, Uzbekistan |
| Türkiye (domestic) | Variable | Domestic, China |
| Kazakhstan / CA | <1 K t | Uzbekistan, China |
China — The Primary Beneficiary
China is the natural winner of Iran's exit.
Türkiye — Regional Logistics Advantage
Türkiye is the second main candidate.
Egypt — Eyeing Russia and the Gulf
Egypt is well placed to fill demand in the Gulf states.
Secondary Players
Chile — The Southern Anchor
Chile dominates the Southern Hemisphere.
Chile's export footprint is concentrated in Latin America.
Outlook and Risks
For buyers, 2026 is a year for portfolio diversification.
Sources: WPTC, AMITOM.